Yo Muff- What do you think will happen when....

[Pervarotti]

the boomers start dying?

I have some thoughts.   Many boomers have an additional 2 bedrooms.   Or they own multiple homes.

So they all start dying off.   Most boomers have chose to stay in their large homes thru old age, unlike the generation before them.   I think this is because they are cash poor and do not want to give up their property.
so they start dying:
1. They start selling their homes because they can't maintain them, they're too old
2. They sell cause they need money for medical stuff and expect to live forever
3. They die

so then
people inherit... but because all of these boomers hoarded property so long, will the over-inflated cost of family sized homes take a dump when that many homes hit the market around the same time?    Will those inheriting not want to maintain an ugly outdated house in the suburbs and sell, sell, sell... also dumping the price?  Will those liquidating properties all around the same time cause deflation?

Honestly I am excited to see what the mass exit of boomers from the job market (65 year old senior management that can't rotate a PDF) and from the housing market AND EVEN BETTER from politics... their mass exit will have an effect,  and i believe it will be positive. 

I wish they'd cap the voting age.   They're the only ones voting and they sure as hell aren't voting for the shit the younger folks want. 

[Pervarotti]

Muff... do you not like this question - cause youre a boomer?  Are u that old?

There are plenty of articles on this subject online. 

[Pervarotti]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/boomers-are-blame-aging-america/592336/

interesting stuff

[Pervarotti]

Here are some things I have read...

Boomers fucked up
- Zoning laws got more and more restrictive under their watch, making it difficult to build new homes and increasing home values
- Many jobs started requiring licenses, locking out younger candidates and requiring advanced education & courses
- Incarceration rates grew rapidly
- Instead of down sizing boomers have chose to hold onto their properties and "age in place"
- National debt went crazy
- (this is a weird one) but younger people have started dying at higher rates in the last 5 years from suicide, car accidents etc
- Millennials will not make major life decisions if they can't find housing, so birth rates are falling
 

[Silver Mercenary]

lulz I dont think muff is a baby boomer..more like a mommy banger

I think baby boomers will hold on to their property for as long as they can, they feel theyve worked hard to be where there at and they will not simply surrender their life's work.

The wealthier BB's (with their excessive wealth) may have helped purchase their offspring their own homes to start them off. The surviving relatives may either keep or sell the property

If BB's are dying off than Gen X/Yers are the beneficiaries. x'ers didnt have it as easy as BB's, but I think X'ers are more practical than sentimental. They would sell any inheritance en masse and pass the fortune to the Gen Z's or keep the money to plan for retirement

your parents r baby boomer no?

[SpaceMonkey]

I, too, often think about Baby Boomers and the affect their deaths will have on society.

I think Perv is correct. There's going to be a major dive in housing prices as a glut of homes for sale hit the market. The Millenial generation, however, is actually LARGER in number than the Baby Boomer generation, so those who don't have student loans and massive debts might buy up the homes.

I'm watching the classic car market. Those old muscle cars that Boomers paid $50,000 to $100,000 for -- who's going to buy them? Gen X and Millenials don't have the extra cash to spend on them, nor much interest.

[Silver Mercenary]

fuck the baby boomers. they chose the easy dangling carrot in their face, and completely ignored the future of their generation and put the weight of the world on them. Hope they shit their beds to the end and nobody to wipe their asses

[Pervarotti]

Silver that seems to be a growing opinion of them.

There are a ton of articles about their dying off and what it might do to the economy. 

[Pervarotti]

Berkley EDU

85 percent of baby boomers that currently own 32 million homes express no interest in selling in the near future. While baby boomers own nearly $13.5 trillion in homes, millennials are delaying becoming homeowners in part due to housing shortages and subsequent housing affordability. Baby boomer homes are homes that should have been put on the market right about now. These homes would have been meeting the growing demand of millennials that have approached, or are approaching, the stage in their lives where they purchase a home. Realtor.com Chief Economist Daniel Hale describes these 32 million homes as homes “the market desperately needs.”

[Pervarotti]

Deflation-----


However, these short term benefits are also laced with words of caution in the long term. In the long term, there is a very real concern about a potential oversupply of housing in the market. This oversupply is likely to be caused by the differences between millennials and baby boomers. The same barriers of entry that prevent millennials from becoming homeowners currently could very likely continue to exist, as financial capacity may still be an issue for a generation growing up post-Great Recession and facing heavy financial burdens. There is also the issue of a lack of demand for the particular homes that will be entering the market in the coming decades. The needs and desires of millennials are different than that of previous generations, and while McMansions in exurbs were particularly appealing to baby boomers, they do not align with the preferences and demands of millenials that prefer being significantly closer to urban areas. There are also other factors, such as the size of homes and the design of the home itself, that will influence whether millennials will even be interested in purchasing homes in certain areas where baby boomers will inevitably be selling.

This uncertainty leaves economists concerned: another housing crash. The concern lies in the fact that there will likely be a large oversupply in certain areas, which will cause housing prices to plummet, thus leading to a housing crash in those areas

[Pervarotti]

Just read on Bloomberg we can expect housing to drop and supply to increase mid to late 2020s as boomers can't take it with them.  Some areas will deflate, expensive places like San Fran will boom.

10 more years.  die boomers, die!

[Silver Mercenary]

They basically said what I said, lol and Im no economist lol

But why are they leaving Gen X'ers out of the equation? I mean arent genx' the benefactors of the Baby Boomers inheritance?

Also how does an oversupply affect your industry?

[SpaceMonkey]

Here, in Charlotte, we have hundreds of NEW apartment buildings being erected all over the city (from the downtown urban city part to the suburbs) and many articles speculate "who will live in all of these"?

Most likely, down-sizing seniors and Millenials out of college will. However, the rents are ridiculous; $1,200 - $3,000 a month.

I'm paying $1,300 for a one-bedroom, one-bathroom apartment now and am having a hard time making rent and I make $92,000 a year. I don't expect I'll ever purchase a house again in my lifetime. Maybe a condo after the housing market crashes.

[Pervarotti]

Silver if a bunch of people inherit money at the same time, it causes deflation.  From what I read there is some worry of it causing class differences. 

Space $1200 wont get you a studio here.   That is cheap!

The extra homes expected to hit the market 2025-2030 are currently family homes owned by the boomers.  Like 4 bedrooms.   They're going to want to downsize to condos by then too so the demand for smaller homes and condos will still be high and we will have all these extra boomer homes in the suburbs. 

Silver, what I read says since the boomer are trying to "age in place" almost all of them are planning remodels to make their homes more comfortable within the next 3 years. 

[Pervarotti]

Why won't Muffy answer us?